Global fertility rate has been declining for decades, with the rate of decline accelerating significantly over the past 20 years. Despite various explanations proposed by researchers, the underlying reasons remain unclear. Now, a new study has put forward a controversial new view: smartphones, especially iPhones, which have changed the lifestyles of modern people, may also be one of the factors contributing to the decline in birth rates.
The release of the iPhone coincided closely with a turning point in the birth rate.
In 2007, Apple released its first iPhone. Researchers found that the declining birth rate trend in the United States and several other countries took a significant turn during this period. This coincidence caught the attention of Caitlin Myers, an economist at Middlebury College in Vermont, USA. In an interview, she stated, “This is a very interesting question: why is the birth rate declining so rapidly?” She pointed out that since 2007, the number of births in the United States has declined by nearly a quarter. Mobile phone use increases or decreases opportunities for real-world contact.
Myers’ research focuses on the question: as people spend more time in the mobile and online world, is face-to-face social interaction decreasing, thus indirectly leading to a decline in pregnancy and birth rates? To test this hypothesis, she analysed birth rate changes in various counties in the United States during the early stages of the iPhone’s release. Because the iPhone was only sold through the US telecom operator AT&T at the time, it was available in some areas but not in others.
By comparing different regions and controlling for factors such as income level, education level, and contraception policies, the research team found that the birth rate was declining significantly faster in areas where people could afford to buy an iPhone. Myers stated, “We observed that birth rates are declining faster in areas where iPhones are readily available.” She believes the underlying logic is not complicated: “When people spend more time online, it means they spend less time together face-to-face.” She also jokingly said, “If two people never meet, it’s naturally difficult to get pregnant.” Canada’s birth rate has fallen to a historic low.
Currently, fertility rates in many countries are far below the “population replacement level” (approximately 2.1 children per woman) required to maintain population stability. Data shows that the fertility rate in the United States is approximately 1.6 children per woman. Canada’s fertility rate is even lower, at only about 1.25 children per woman. Moreover, this trend is not limited to developed countries; many regions around the world are experiencing declining birth rates. Experts: Smartphones are not the only reason
However, many experts caution that the declining birth rate should not be simply attributed to smartphones. Since the 2000s, many significant changes have occurred in the social and economic environment. These factors are generally considered to be important reasons for the global “baby bust,” including the global financial crisis, continuously rising housing prices, improved education levels, more widespread use of contraception, and the ever-increasing cost of raising children. Celia Chandler, an author who has long focused on the issue of “non-fertility options,” said: “It may be a bit far-fetched to directly link technological development with people’s unwillingness to have children.” She believes that one of the most important changes in the past few decades is that more people, especially women, have the right and ability to decide for themselves whether to become parents. She said, “I feel very lucky to have been born in an era where we have choices.”
Mobile phones may just be part of a larger social transformation.
Researchers also acknowledge that the iPhone alone cannot explain such complex global population trends. However, they believe that smartphones may be part of a broader social transformation. As people rely more on online communication, the ways people build relationships, develop intimacy, and plan their lives are changing, and these changes may ultimately have a profound impact on fertility intentions and birth rates.
In other words, the problem may not lie in the iPhone itself, but in how the smartphone era is reshaping people’s social patterns, intimate relationships, and lifestyles.