The federal Liberals lost a by-election to the Bloc Québécois in Montreal on Monday night, signalling that their Quebec base could be in jeopardy in the next general election. Meanwhile, the federal New Democratic Party (NDP) held on to its traditionally strong seat in Winnipeg. These were two crucial elections that both parties considered essential to win. In Montreal’s LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, Liberal Laura Palestine was trying to defend her seat in a tight three-way race against NDP candidate Craig Sauvé and Bloc Quebecois candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé.
Conservative candidate Louis Arlenty was rated as uncompetitive. The Bloc ultimately won with 28 per cent of the vote, the Liberals with 27.2 per cent, the NDP with 26.1 per cent and the Conservatives with 11.6 per cent. Meanwhile, in Winnipeg’s Elmwood—Transcona, the NDP declared victory and the Conservative candidate conceded. With all votes counted, NDP candidate Leila Dance received 48.1 per cent, Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds received 44 per cent and the Liberals received 4.8 per cent. The loss in Montreal is a major blow to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals.
The Liberals have lost this riding only three times since 1984, and each loss came at a time when the Liberals were at historically low polling rates. The first was in 1984, when Brian Mulrooney and the Conservatives were at their peak, and the second was in 2011, when the NDP’s “Orange Wave” pushed the Liberals to third place in the House of Commons. The Liberals say this defeat was expected within the party. This was expected due to recent polls and the defeat in the Toronto-St. Paul by-election three months ago. It is expected to be a bigger blow to the Liberals because this summer began and ended with two major defeats. The Bloc Quebecois’ victory in Montreal was considered an unexpected result.
The Liberals explained that the Bloc Quebecois mobilized all its resources, including former leader Gilles Ducepp, to win. They also analyzed that this result should be interpreted as a message to voters about Justin Trudeau rather than the Bloc Quebecois. Meanwhile, federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said he would remain as party leader regardless of the outcome of this by-election.
In this by-election, the NDP had to win Winnipeg, and they focused their resources on it. Ultimately, the victory in Elmwood-Transcona is considered the minimum achievement for the NDP. This victory is evaluated as providing important political leeway to NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, who is trying to differentiate himself from the Liberals. This is expected to be a positive signal for Singh to continue his strategy of ending cooperation with the Liberals and ending policy concessions.
The Conservatives invested a lot of resources to win in Elmwood-Transcona, but it was expected to be difficult. The constituency is a densely populated working-class area that the Conservatives are trying to target nationwide, but the Conservatives evaluated this loss as not being a necessary seat loss for forming a government.