The performance of Canada ‘s housing market this year can only be described as “dismal,” and even that would be an understatement.
The Greater Vancouver area is expected to see its lowest sales volume in 25 years this year, while the situation in Toronto is even worse, with house prices falling for 10 consecutive months and plummeting 22% from their 2022 peak.
According to the latest data released by the Greater Vancouver Realtors on December 2, a total of 1,846 residential properties were sold in November, a 15.4% decrease year-over-year and 20.6% lower than the 10-year seasonal average. It is projected that by the end of 2025, only 22,263 homes will be sold in the Greater Vancouver area, breaking the record for the lowest annual sales volume this century.
The previous record low was set in 2018, with 24,619 transactions that year, but this year is clearly even worse.
Even more serious is the housing inventory in the Greater Vancouver area, which is so large that it is difficult to sell. There were 3,674 new listings in November, which is slightly less than 1.4% of last year, but still 3.1% higher than the 10-year average.
Overall inventory increased by 14.4% year-on-year, reaching 15,149 units, which is 36.3% higher than the ten-year seasonal average. Even if there are plenty of houses to choose from on the market, they still can’t be sold, and sellers face enormous pressure to lower prices.
In terms of prices, the composite benchmark price in the Greater Vancouver area in November was CAD 1,123,700, down 3.9% year-over-year and down 0.3% from October. The benchmark price for detached houses was CAD 1,900,600, down 4.3% year-over-year. The benchmark price for apartments was CAD 714,300, down 5.2% year-over-year. The benchmark price for townhouses was CAD 1,065,600, down 4.4% year-over-year.
Compared to the peak in March 2022, the decline in some areas is even more alarming. The average home price in the Fraser Valley in November was $1.45 million CAD, a full 19% decrease from the peak in 2022. The average condominium price was $507,600 CAD, also down 15% year-over-year.
The slump in the Greater Vancouver housing market is not an isolated case; the situation is even more severe in Toronto, Canada’s largest real estate market. A report released today by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board shows that home sales plummeted 15.8% year-over-year, while prices fell 6.4% to $1.03 million. This marks the 10th consecutive month of decline in Toronto area home prices, with the average price across all home types now down by 22% compared to the record high in February 2022.
The situation is even worse in Toronto’s condominium market, which has seen what some experts call a “crash,” with sales falling by 21.8% and prices dropping by 15% since their peak in February 2022.Investors are withdrawing from the condo market, and first-time homebuyers are also hesitant to buy due to units being too small. Sales are falling, prices are falling, and expectations are falling even further, making condos the weakest link in Toronto’s housing market.
Why has the Canadian housing market performed so poorly this year? The reasons are not complicated. Bryan Yu, chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union, analysed that this largely reflects the current state of housing affordability and the lack of economic certainty. While mortgage rates are slightly better than in the previous two years, they remain high.
Jason Mercer, chief information officer of the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, also said that economic uncertainty continues to affect the confidence of both buyers and sellers. While Canada’s economy showed some bright spots in the third quarter, the impact of tariffs continued, and Algoma Steel recently issued a layoff notice to 1,000 employees, making the market hesitant to make any rash moves.
The Bank of Canada lowered its key interest rate to 2.25% in October. Economists generally believe that interest rates are unlikely to fall further in the short term, and that a market recovery will depend on confidence, not interest rates. But right now, what the market lacks most is confidence. Potential homebuyers in Greater Vancouver and Toronto are still taking a wait-and-see approach, waiting for more positive economic news.
Buyers lack confidence in the economy and employment, and the road to recovery for the Canadian housing market seems long.
