According to a CTV News report on June 29, Canada has made extensive preparations for the World Cup, with widespread expectations that the event would bring a tourism boom. Discussions about this, including increased traffic and rising accommodation prices, have been ongoing for months. But will the actual situation be as spectacular as anticipated? An economic forecasting expert stated that some hotels in Vancouver and Toronto reported lower-than-expected bookings. When interviewed, the expert was asked whether host Canadian cities were experiencing a decline in tourist numbers. According to Kiefer Van Mulligen, chief economist at Signal49 Research, this seems to be the case, judging from the hoteliers’ surprised reaction to occupancy rates that were flat or even lower than expected.<\/p>\n
The decrease in tourist numbers may not be due to fewer tourists watching the World Cup than expected, but rather because those who are not interested in the World Cup have chosen to go elsewhere or cancel their original trips. In an interview with CTV’s “Your Morning,” Van Mulligen said, “I think what may not have been fully considered beforehand was the ‘crowding-out effect’ of this regular, baseline tourism activity.” An organization representing hotels in the Toronto area said that hotel occupancy rates were 72% in the third week of June, a significant drop from 86% in the same period last year. Data from earlier this month showed that Vancouver’s hotel booking rate was 64.5% in the same period last June, but only 47.9% when it entered June this year. Hotel data analytics company CoStar also pointed out that hotel bookings in Mexico and the host cities of the World Cup in the United States also declined in June.<\/p>\n
Van Mulligen, speaking about Toronto and Vancouver, pointed out that business travel has likely also declined, as many trade shows and conferences have either been postponed or cancelled outright. Similarly, some annual events, such as the Vancouver Dragon Boat Festival, have been cancelled due to scheduling conflicts with the World Cup. \u201cYou can already see a reduction in this baseline activity, so if you want to see a substantial increase in tourist numbers, you have to go up from this baseline.\u201d Similarly, for travellers heading to Vancouver and Toronto in June, discussions about traffic congestion and rising hotel prices may deter some, especially given the current economic climate.<\/p>\n
Van Mulligen stated, “We are in a period of technological recession, and consumers are worried about the job market\u2014including AI replacing jobs\u2014plus the ongoing tariff dispute with the United States, all of which are causing anxiety about people’s future financial situation.” He stated that consumer confidence was already low, compounded by the surge in oil prices caused by the situation in the Middle East before the start of the event.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo during the event, people\u2019s daily necessities increase, and they also must pay extra for accommodation, airfare, tickets, etc. This is indeed a lot of pressure for Canadian consumers, and perhaps this is one of the reasons,\u201d Van Mulligen said.<\/p>\n
As to whether the economic investment in hosting the World Cup is worthwhile, Canada is still hesitant to make a definitive conclusion. He stated, “Economics is essentially about trade-offs.” Not everyone agrees that the World Cup is a priority, but some believe that even if the costs ultimately outweigh the benefits, the event is still worth celebrating.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"