With just 60 days to go before Alberta’s referendum, both sides are ramping up their final mobilization efforts. The referendum consists of 10 questions; the first nine concern immigration and constitutional reform, while the tenth asks voters whether they want to remain in Canada or call a second binding referendum on secession. This question is expected to be a focal point at rallies and city hall events in the coming weeks. Janet Brown, a long-time pollster, points out that support for secession has remained virtually unchanged over the past eight years, consistently significantly lower than support for remaining in Canada. Currently, undecided voters represent only between 5% and 8%. She believes the focus of this referendum campaign has shifted from persuasion to mobilization, and voter turnout is crucial for both sides.
On the side supporting independence, the third-party advertising agency “Let Alberta Decide” has received over $415,000 in donations, leading similar organizations. The organization plans to hold a large rally at the provincial legislature on October 17, two days before the referendum. The organization’s leader, Keith Wilson, stated that while some supporters are reluctant to publicly state their position, the strategy remains based on the assumption that polls are accurate, acknowledging the significant challenges they face. They said they will gradually increase mobilization, including organizing minibuses to transport voters and tailoring their messaging on social media to different demographics. Because polls show that independent support is stronger in rural areas and weaker in urban areas, the organization is focusing its efforts on smaller cities such as Calgary, Edmonton, Lethbridge, and Lloydminster.
The focus is on reaching young men in their 20s and older adults concerned about their grandchildren’s future. Forever Canadian, a pro-unity organization, said volunteers recently tidied lawn signs at their Edmonton office and plan to continue distributing them throughout the province. The organization has established volunteer teams in almost every municipality, with over 18,000 Albertans signing up. Organizer Thomas Lukaszuk said several large rallies and “Unity Bus” parades will be held over the next two months.
Lukaschuk said the organization’s current focus remains on boosting Canadian pride rather than directly mobilizing voters, but resources are available if needed. He described the election campaign as being like a hockey game in its second period, but overall it has been going on for a year and a month. The Alberta Prosperity Project, which launched a citizen petition to push for a secession referendum, will hold a “Province in Crisis” rally at the provincial legislature on August 29, followed by a city hall event. Project leader Mitch Sylvestre stated that while not entirely in favour of early voting, he will encourage supporters to use it as much as possible.
The organization also encouraged members to create lists of friends, family, and neighbours to ensure they vote on referendum day. Sylvester believes that mobilizing supporters to vote would significantly increase their chances of winning. The pro-federal organization Alberta’s Voice has listed the highest donations among similar campaign groups, exceeding $87,000 CAD. Its leader, Stephen Carter, stated that they hope to purchase radio advertising in Calgary, Edmonton, and rural areas, but funding remains a major challenge, with leading separatist organizations raising four times as much.
The organization will focus on winning over undecided voters, aiming to remain in Canada with a 75-25 vote in the referendum. Carter said that while the number of undecided voters is small, they will determine whether the issue will be faced again in the future. The organization also plans to open a “campaign school” to train volunteers and establish a contact network. Carter stated that he hopes to register 100,000 people through a contact mechanism to change the overall voter turnout, targeting voters who are close to active participants but not yet highly engaged. In addition, Elections Alberta allows residents to vote by mail, but special ballot packages must be received by 5 p.m. on October 16, earlier than the referendum day.