Since President Trump took office, Canadians’ anxieties about the economic outlook have been steadily rising, and this anxiety appears to be intensifying further as we enter 2026. A recent poll shows that nearly 80% of respondents believe Canada is in recession, and almost 60% believe the job market will be even more challenging in 2026.According to the local English-language newspaper, the Toronto Star, Pollara Strategic Insights recently conducted its annual economic outlook survey, asking Canadians for their views on the economic prospects of the United States and Canada.
A survey shows that Canadians are increasingly pessimistic about the U.S. economy since Trump took office. A staggering 65% of respondents expect the U.S. economy to worsen this year, the most pessimistic forecast since the 2009 global financial crisis (when it was 68%). In contrast, only 27% of respondents expressed similar concerns in 2025, when Biden is in office.
Pollara’s Chief Strategy Officer, Arnold, pointed out: “Even if Trump did not intend to harm Canada, people still believe that his decisions in the United States could affect the U.S. economy, and problems in the U.S. economy would have a negative impact on Canada.” This uncertainty is causing anxiety among the Canadian public. The survey shows that the policies of the US president will continue to influence Canadian domestic politics. Arnold stated that the psychological effect of Prime Minister Carney and Ontario Premier Ford leveraging concerns about “Trump and tariffs” to win support in last year’s federal and provincial elections continues.
In specific forecasts for the Canadian economy, 61% of respondents believed the economy would worsen by 2026, and 59% worried about a deteriorating employment situation. Meanwhile, 59% anticipated a global economic downturn, and 41% feared a stock market decline.
A Pollara survey shows that 79% of respondents believe Canada is in a recession, up from 70% in 2025.Although in economics, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, as Arnold stated, “The public judges the economy not just by looking at the data, but by whether life has become difficult, whether prices have risen, and whether it is possible to maintain an ideal standard of living.”
Public concern about the cost of living was equally evident: 57% of respondents were at least moderately worried about U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminium, automobiles, and lumber; 67% were worried about rising food and grocery prices; 56% were worried about housing costs; 44% were worried about gasoline prices; and 42% were worried about income tax burdens.
Regarding household income, 43% of Canadians expect their household income to lag their spending this year, up from 40% in 2025, but down from 46% in 2024 and 50% in 2023. Similarly, 43% believe their income will keep pace with their spending, up from 42% in 2025, 38% in 2024, and 33% in 2023. Only 7% expect income to outpace spending, down from 9% in 2025 and 8% in 2024, and 10% in 2023.
This survey was conducted from November 18 to 26, involving an online questionnaire of 2,500 people nationwide, using the Dynata and Leger online panel. Although the online sample does not allow for the calculation of strict error, the error is estimated to be approximately plus or minus 2 percentage points (95% confidence level) based on random sampling.